Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
