Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”